Production in the Scandinavian contracting markets is forecast to fall by around 4% in 2025, following an 11% decline in 2024. The downturn is attributable to interest-rate increases and high inflation in the period 2022–2023, as the impact of such factors usually takes one to two years to materialise. At the same time, statistics on project starts show a clear, positive trend. While the situation remains challenging, this has intensified expectations of a market turnaround.
Veidekke anticipates a moderate upturn to start in 2026, with estimated growth of +5% in 2026 and +4% in 2027. Growth is expected across the entire market but will be particularly strong in the apartment and small houses segment. The infrastructure segment looks set to remain stable and strong throughout the period.
The 2025 forecasts for Scandinavia as a whole are generally in line with Veidekke’s market update from spring of this year, while expectations for 2026 have been reduced slightly. For Norway and Sweden specifically, expectations indicate a somewhat weaker development for 2025 than previously forecasted, while the upturn in 2026 looks set to be slightly more moderate.
“Having come through a challenging period, we are now seeing clear signs of recovery in the contracting markets,” says Kristoffer Eide Hoen, Head of Insight and Analysis at Veidekke.
“Although 2024 and 2025 have been challenging, we expect lower interest rates and positive economic developments to provide a basis for growth in 2026 and 2027.”
The market update is available on the Veidekke website (veidekke.com), under Investor Relations/Reports and presentations/Market updates.
For further information, please contact:
Kristoffer Eide Hoen, Head of Insight and Analysis at Veidekke ASA
Tel. +47 976 75 434 | Kristoffer.Eide.Hoen@veidekke.no
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Veidekke is one of Scandinavia’s largest contractors. In addition to undertaking all types of building and civil engineering assignments, the group also maintains roads and produces asphalt and aggregates. Veidekke emphasises stakeholder involvement and local experience. Its annual turnover is approximately NOK 41 billion, and half of its 8,000 employees own shares in the company. Veidekke is listed on the Oslo Stock Exchange, and has posted a profit every year since its inception in 1936.
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| Presentation market update autumn 2025 |